So you wanna be a Champion - Issue #3

  • By Kris Burley, Day 120, 2026


With the All Star break upon us a refresh of the contenders analysis is in order.

Updates at Day 120:
- Updated with All Star actuals
- Updated Net Rating



Tier 1:

1. Kangz (1)
2. Bullets (2)
3. Huskies (3)

Minor movements here, with the teams remaining the same and in the same rank. Owens omission and a dip in net rating has seen the Kangz fall back against the previous champs, but retain the top spot. Bullets slightly improve and Huskies declining due to net rating. Unless the Huskies performance begins to improve we may see them drop to Tier 2 in the next update.

Tier 2:

4. Fireballs (4)
5. Blizzards (8)
6. Lumberjacks (7)

As predicted the Jacks move up into Tier 2, however the Blizzard from Oz has stormed through, up to number 5 on the rankings, likely supported by the acquisition of Rush. Fireballs maintain their position, but more on that later.

Tier 3

7. Jailbirds (5)
8. Warriors (6)
9. Mustangs (9)

Falls for both the Jailbirds and Warriors and Mustangs remain at 9th.

New Considerations

For this analysis, I will be looking at a teams performance against top 8 teams. Top 8 teams at Day 120 are:

Kings
Bullets
Blizzards
Fireballs
Jailbirds
Huskies
Lumberjacks
Warriors

Metric Definitions:

Wins Against Top 8 Teams
- Wins = number of wins against the top 8 teams
- Home Games = number of wins against top 8 teams achieved at home
- Home % = % of wins against top 8 teams achieved at home
- Point Diff = Aggregate point difference in wins against the top 8 teams
- Average Point Diff = Average point difference in wins against the top 8 teams


Losses Against Top 8 Teams
- Losses = number of Losses against the top 8 teams
- Home Games = number of Losses against top 8 teams lost at home
- Home % = % of Losses against top 8 teams lost at home
- Point Diff = Aggregate point difference in Losses against the top 8 teams
- Average Point Diff = Average point difference in Losses against the top 8 teams

A note on Home %. For wins, a lower % is more desirable as the team is winning against top 8 teams away. The inverse holds for losses.



Some interesting results. Whilst the Kangz and Bullets are not not at the top in total win %, they are strong on the road against top 8 teams. What is surprising is the Blizzards and to a lesser extent the Fireballs. The Blizzards are 2nd overall and have played more away games, an impressive feat. The Fireballs have a far better record vs their total record (only one of 3 teams to be better). It does need to be taken in context as the sample size for Blizzards and Fireballs is less than Kangz and Blizzards.

The Warriors and Jailbirds are really struggling against these top teams, which cements their falling to Tier 3 in the contender rankings. The Huskies, Lumberjacks and Mustangs have decent records. Outside of the contenders the Predators and Drones appear to be capitalising on the home court rankings.

Closing thoughts

How does this fit in with the current methodology? At this stage it's interesting, but has not been tested across the past 6 seasons. This will be worked on over the All Star break. As always, feedback is welcomed in the Slack channel.